Sensex, Nifty Poised for Record Highs as Festive Cheer and Global Optimism Fuel Market Rally

India’s stock markets are set to reopen on a bullish note after the Diwali holidays, with benchmark indices — the Sensex and Nifty — likely to touch fresh record highs amid festive-driven optimism, robust corporate earnings, and improving foreign investor sentiment.

Festive Momentum Lifts Market Sentiment

At 7:40 am, Nifty futures were showing a range of 26,260 points indicating a strong opening for the Nifty 50 right next to the record high of 26,277.35. The major indices BSE and NSE have appreciated almost 3% in the last 5 days, mainly due to good performances of companies like Reliance Industries and the private banking sector, among others.

Analysts are of the opinion that the market rally in the near term can be attributed to the factors such as the combination of festive spending, tax cuts, and a favorable policy atmosphere.

Record Festive Sales Signal Consumer Revival

A survey conducted by the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) revealed that the retail market in India had the highest-ever festive season sales with the Diwali business hitting ₹5.40 lakh crore in products and ₹65,000 crore in services, which is a 25% increase compared to the previous year’s turnover of ₹4.25 lakh crore.

Consumer confidence has been elevated as a result of the upturn in expenditure in various sectors such as automobiles, consumer durables, and real estate. On the other hand, economists argue that the reduction in GST and the tax rebates granted recently have also contributed to the strong consumer buying mood.

Experts See Potential Breakout

“Markets have entered a phase of optimism driven by steady earnings growth and a revival in consumption,” said R. Ponmudi, CEO of Enrich Money, in an interview with Reuters.

“A decisive breakout above 26,000–26,300 could push Nifty to fresh lifetime highs, supported by strong quarterly results, festive liquidity, and foreign inflows,” he added.

Foreign Investors Return with Renewed Confidence

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned net buyers again, marking a shift from their earlier cautious stance. As per NSDL data, FIIs purchased $100.4 million in Indian equities and $40.6 million in bonds on October 21, marking their fifth straight day of net buying.

Experts attribute the turnaround to easing inflation, steady GDP growth, and an improved credit rating outlook, which are bolstering India’s appeal to global investors.

US-India Trade Talks Add to Positivity

Further boosting sentiment, reports suggest that India and the United States are close to finalizing a long-pending bilateral trade deal. The agreement could cut U.S. tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to around 15–16%, significantly enhancing India’s export competitiveness.

The news has also strengthened the rupee outlook, with non-deliverable forwards suggesting an opening near ₹87.80–₹87.85 per dollar, compared to Monday’s close of ₹87.93.

Outlook: Festive Optimism Meets Global Uncertainty

While domestic sentiment remains upbeat, analysts caution investors to stay alert to global developments, including U.S. inflation trends and interest rate decisions.

“If corporate earnings continue their positive trajectory, both Sensex and Nifty could easily scale new record highs before the week ends,” said a Mumbai-based market expert.

With strong foreign inflows, festive demand, and improving trade relations, India’s equity markets appear ready to enter uncharted territory, setting an auspicious tone for the new Samvat year.